28W(RAI) now at Typhoon intensity, forecast to reach CAT 2 by 24hours, but rapid intensifcation still possible before crossing the Philippines,15/03utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 28W(RAI). 6HOURLY WARNINGS WERE TERMINATED ON 03P(RUBY) AT 14/21UTC. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON BOTH SYSTEMS. INVEST 97W IS NOW THE MAP. SEE DETAILS DOWN BELOW.

15/0350UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY RAI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SURIGAO, PHILIPPINES, JUST AFTER 24H, TRACK ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO, AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) SHORTLY AFTER 48H. THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION REMAINS BEFORE LANDFALL WITH A PEAK INTENSITY SET AT 90 KTS/CAT 2 BY 24H. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS WILL SLIGHTLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 85 KTS/CAT 2 AS IT EXITS INTO THE SCS. THE WARM SST IN THE SCS AND CONTINUED LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL PROMOTE A PEAK OF 105 KTS/CAT 3 BY 96h. AFTERWARD, THE INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE IN THE SCS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 90 KTS BY 120H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH SPRIAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE A 142217Z SSMIS PASS, AS WELL AS MULTI AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS/CAT 1 IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 28W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT ON TRACK PROGRESSION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO 120H. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND HIGHER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS (ICNW). THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL MAY STILL OCCUR CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW.

THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL(PHILIPPINES) MAY STILL OCCUR CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.9N 106.9E, APPROXIMATELY 540 KM NORTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL, 150000Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPURATURES, OFFSET BY LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.