2019 FEB 21 0250UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 50knots TC.
210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 159.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM NORTHEAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A VERY RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SUPPORTED BY A 202222Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS), A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS AND AN ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (33 KNOTS). TC 15P IS RAPIDLY
DECAYING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF FIJI. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE AND COOL
SSTS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE 26 CELSIUS ARE COMBINING TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AT ROUGHLY
4 TO 5 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
BEYOND TAU 48 A STRONG STR BUILDS IN OVER TASMANIA BLOCKING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. TRAPPED BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST, TC 15P BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72, GENERALLY
DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE OVER TASMANIA MOVES
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN EXPERIENCE A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PHASE
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 AS IT TAPS INTO A DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. THEREAFTER,
INCREASED VWS COMBINED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF COOL, STABLE AIR FROM THE
SOUTH WILL SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED, WITH THE NAVGEM, EGRR AND
GALWEM MODELS SHOWING A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48, WITH
NAVGEM BRINGING THE SYSTEM IN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO
THE CENTRAL CORAL SEA BY TAU 120. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. EVEN HERE HOWEVER THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION TAKING THE SYSTEM
WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARDS CAIRNS BY TAU 120, WHILE GFS PERFORMS A
CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO THE SOUTH ENDING UP EAST OF BRISBANE BY THE
SAME TIME. IN LIGHT OF THE BIFURCATION AND EXTREME VARIANCE IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN
TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 50knots TC.
WARNING 37/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 37 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 21, 2019:
Location: 22.5°S 160.0°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 981 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS: Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 37 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 21, 2019:
Location: 22.5°S 160.0°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 981 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 159.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM NORTHEAST OF
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A VERY RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SUPPORTED BY A 202222Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS), A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS AND AN ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (33 KNOTS). TC 15P IS RAPIDLY
DECAYING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF FIJI. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE AND COOL
SSTS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE 26 CELSIUS ARE COMBINING TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AT ROUGHLY
4 TO 5 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
BEYOND TAU 48 A STRONG STR BUILDS IN OVER TASMANIA BLOCKING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. TRAPPED BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST, TC 15P BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72, GENERALLY
DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE OVER TASMANIA MOVES
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN EXPERIENCE A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PHASE
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 AS IT TAPS INTO A DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. THEREAFTER,
INCREASED VWS COMBINED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF COOL, STABLE AIR FROM THE
SOUTH WILL SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED, WITH THE NAVGEM, EGRR AND
GALWEM MODELS SHOWING A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48, WITH
NAVGEM BRINGING THE SYSTEM IN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO
THE CENTRAL CORAL SEA BY TAU 120. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. EVEN HERE HOWEVER THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION TAKING THE SYSTEM
WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARDS CAIRNS BY TAU 120, WHILE GFS PERFORMS A
CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO THE SOUTH ENDING UP EAST OF BRISBANE BY THE
SAME TIME. IN LIGHT OF THE BIFURCATION AND EXTREME VARIANCE IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN
0340UTC
0153UTC
