Rapid Intensification Guidance AL092024 240926 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.80 86.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 15.2 22.1 40.6 47.8 25.3 21.0 34.5 F F N U VU N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 131.0 145.0 53.0 32.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 VF VF N U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 80.1 23.2 5.0 1.9 1.9 N N N N VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 84.0 76.0 109.0 78.0 124.0 12.0 -16.0 39.0 N N F N F U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 68.0 61.0 54.0 56.0 43.0 46.0 41.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 24.0 36.0 34.0 52.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 U VU VU VU VU N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 70.8% 54.6% 62.7% 25kt / 24h 75.1% 72.6% 73.8% 30kt / 24h 68.7% 70.0% 69.3% 35kt / 24h 64.1% 70.0% 67.1% 40kt / 24h 42.2% 68.3% 55.2% 45kt / 36h 20.1% 14.2% 17.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.9% 2.4% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.68 AL092024 240926 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.80 86.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 15.2 22.1 40.6 47.8 25.3 21.0 34.5 N U N F VF N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 68.0 61.0 54.0 56.0 43.0 46.0 41.0 N N N F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 24.0 36.0 34.0 52.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 F VF VF VF VF N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.0% 0.3% 0.7%