Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142024 240912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    138.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  22.8  16.4  16.1  13.3  16.9  15.4  15.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  47.0  47.0  44.0  54.0  38.0  54.0  69.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  81.0  44.0  26.0  39.0  -9.0  46.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   6.0   7.0  12.0   3.0  11.0   2.0   7.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        4.1%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       18.2%       34.9%       26.6%
 30kt / 24h        9.6%       22.6%       16.1%
 35kt / 24h        9.3%       22.6%       15.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       21.8%       11.3%
 45kt / 36h       14.4%       31.0%       22.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.2%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h       17.4%       25.9%       21.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        8.1%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h       28.0%       22.1%       25.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 WP142024 240912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    138.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  22.8  16.4  16.1  13.3  16.9  15.4  15.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   6.0   7.0  12.0   3.0  11.0   2.0   7.0  F  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%