Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142024 240911 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    143.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  19.8  17.8  19.9  27.2  23.9  24.6  22.5  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  150.0 152.0  83.0  42.0  44.0  47.0  56.0  51.0 VF VF  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 134.0 150.0 150.0 105.0  32.0   4.0  33.0  F VF VF VF  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  75.0  71.0  64.0  60.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   7.0  15.0  12.0  16.0  16.0  10.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.7%       23.4%       21.1%
 25kt / 24h       75.4%       80.6%       78.0%
 30kt / 24h       47.7%       67.9%       57.8%
 35kt / 24h       24.2%       67.9%       46.0%
 40kt / 24h       24.2%       65.7%       45.0%
 45kt / 36h       48.9%       77.6%       63.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       58.9%       29.5%
 55kt / 48h       50.9%       54.4%       52.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       42.3%       33.6%
 65kt / 72h       56.0%       51.7%       53.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.84

 WP142024 240911 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    143.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  19.8  17.8  19.9  27.2  23.9  24.6  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  75.0  71.0  64.0  60.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   7.0  15.0  12.0  16.0  16.0  10.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%