Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062024 240910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     96.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  12.8  15.1  27.5  46.2  59.8  60.8  60.0  F  F  F  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  77.0  81.0  93.0  47.0   3.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  76.2  49.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  49.0  79.0  78.0  50.0  72.0 117.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  54.0  50.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -2.0  -6.0  -2.0  12.0  22.0  46.0  37.0  N  N  F  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.1%       20.6%       22.9%
 25kt / 24h       53.0%       61.6%       57.3%
 30kt / 24h       41.5%       49.2%       45.3%
 35kt / 24h       37.0%       49.2%       43.1%
 40kt / 24h       14.7%       49.2%       31.9%
 45kt / 36h       27.3%       29.2%       28.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.0%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%        7.1%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        2.1%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        0.4%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 AL062024 240910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     96.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  12.8  15.1  27.5  46.2  59.8  60.8  60.0  U  U  U  N VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  54.0  50.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -2.0  -6.0  -2.0  12.0  22.0  46.0  37.0  N  N  U  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%