Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    111.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  21.4  31.1  32.2  22.4  26.1  34.0  34.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0  50.0 106.0  41.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  17.4   1.0  -8.5  -8.5  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  21.0   6.0  27.0  24.0  21.0  33.0  33.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  81.0  81.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.9%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.78

 WP122024 240906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    111.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  21.4  31.1  32.2  22.4  26.1  34.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  81.0  81.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        8.1%        4.0%