Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1  15.5  13.6  21.8  23.4  23.9  19.0  21.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  42.0  41.0  45.0  48.0  45.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  25.7   6.2  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  66.0  65.0  54.0  20.0  50.0  65.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   3.0  -6.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.4%        3.7%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%        6.9%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%        4.4%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.58

 WP122024 240905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1  15.5  13.6  21.8  23.4  23.9  19.0  21.6  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   3.0  -6.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%