Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122024 240904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  17.4  15.3  14.7  12.8  27.6  23.9  26.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  54.0  49.0  46.0  43.0  56.0  47.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  91.0  92.0  80.0  83.0  62.0  73.0  34.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  73.0  77.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       83.5%       64.9%       74.2%
 25kt / 24h       94.7%       91.8%       93.3%
 30kt / 24h       94.7%       91.8%       93.3%
 35kt / 24h       94.7%       91.8%       93.3%
 40kt / 24h       75.6%       90.6%       83.1%
 45kt / 36h       87.3%       82.2%       84.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       74.2%       37.1%
 55kt / 48h       49.9%       61.2%       55.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.6%       40.0%       32.3%
 65kt / 72h       18.8%       26.5%       22.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.10

 WP122024 240904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  17.4  15.3  14.7  12.8  27.6  23.9  26.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  73.0  77.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%