Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112024 240823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  25.4  24.7  21.7  19.1  12.0  17.1  18.1  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  41.0  35.0  43.0  38.0  35.0  64.0  67.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  55.0  25.0  11.0  40.0 -60.0   7.0 -23.0  U  N  U  U  N VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  73.0  70.0  66.0  60.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  12.0  12.0   4.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.7%        3.8%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h       10.8%       19.4%       15.1%
 30kt / 24h        9.6%       10.4%       10.0%
 35kt / 24h        6.0%       10.4%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.8%       10.4%        7.6%
 45kt / 36h       11.9%       12.2%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        9.8%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        2.1%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        6.9%        6.3%        6.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP112024 240823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  25.4  24.7  21.7  19.1  12.0  17.1  18.1  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  73.0  70.0  66.0  60.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  12.0  12.0   4.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%