Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240817 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00     65.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  25.0  20.0  15.5  15.8  22.6  27.2  35.6  U  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  30.0  26.0  21.0  25.0  26.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.1  63.6  59.4  59.4  49.8  44.4   5.7 -34.9  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0   6.0  48.0  35.0  39.0  -4.0  92.0  61.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  49.0  46.0  46.0  52.0  56.0  61.0  60.0 VU  U VU VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.0   9.0   8.0   7.0   6.0  15.0  25.0  60.0 VU  U  U  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        1.1%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        3.8%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        2.0%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        1.9%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.9%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%        1.6%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 AL052024 240817 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00     65.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  25.0  20.0  15.5  15.8  22.6  27.2  35.6  F  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  49.0  46.0  46.0  52.0  56.0  61.0  60.0 VF  F VF VF  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.0   9.0   8.0   7.0   6.0  15.0  25.0  60.0 VF  F  F  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        8.6%        3.7%        6.1%