Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240817 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.50    143.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  33.6  31.0  34.6  39.5  39.6  43.7  53.9  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.2   9.2  14.4   9.2   0.9 -19.6 -44.7 -51.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  64.0  79.0  59.0  52.0  42.0  91.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  65.0  58.0  53.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  25.0  19.0  18.0  42.0  62.0  87.0 105.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.14

 WP082024 240817 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.50    143.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.