Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    144.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  15.4  13.3  11.2  12.6  23.2  13.4  10.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  21.0  19.0  14.0  24.0  13.0  19.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  94.4  90.5 100.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  12.0  31.0  33.0   9.0  16.0 -26.0 -22.0  N  U  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  76.0  75.0  70.0  62.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  11.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.7%       14.6%       13.6%
 25kt / 24h       31.1%       55.9%       43.5%
 30kt / 24h       26.7%       45.9%       36.3%
 35kt / 24h       26.7%       45.9%       36.3%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%       45.9%       25.9%
 45kt / 36h       27.2%       51.3%       39.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       32.8%       16.4%
 55kt / 48h       14.2%       27.0%       20.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.1%       13.8%        9.4%
 65kt / 72h        5.8%       16.0%       10.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP062024 240808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    144.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  15.4  13.3  11.2  12.6  23.2  13.4  10.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  76.0  75.0  70.0  62.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  N  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  11.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%