Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052024 240723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  28.6  31.0  34.3  34.3  26.7  10.0  14.1  F  N  U  U  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0  55.0   5.0  68.0  26.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0   4.3 -20.7  35.1  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0  40.0  11.0  58.0  41.0   2.0  22.0  27.0  F  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -11.0  -7.0 -32.0 -23.0 -17.0  -5.0   0.0 VF  F  F VF VF VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.9%       20.9%       41.4%
 25kt / 24h       27.4%       18.9%       23.1%
 30kt / 24h       21.6%       12.6%       17.1%
 35kt / 24h       21.6%       12.6%       17.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.52

 WP052024 240723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  28.6  31.0  34.3  34.3  26.7  10.0  14.1  N  N  N  F  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -11.0  -7.0 -32.0 -23.0 -17.0  -5.0   0.0 VU  U  U VU VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%