Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052024 240722 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  18.8  19.9  13.9  19.2  24.2  32.0  31.4  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0 100.0 105.0 116.0 122.0 103.0   7.0  27.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   132.0 112.0  96.0  85.0  46.0  69.0  45.0   1.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  79.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -7.0  -1.0  -8.0  -5.0 -15.0 -29.0  F  N  F  N  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.7%       15.1%       15.9%
 25kt / 24h       67.0%       71.6%       69.3%
 30kt / 24h       44.2%       60.6%       52.4%
 35kt / 24h       33.9%       60.6%       47.2%
 40kt / 24h       15.2%       58.4%       36.8%
 45kt / 36h       61.5%       68.4%       64.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       47.2%       23.6%
 55kt / 48h       52.0%       59.3%       55.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       39.8%       32.3%
 65kt / 72h       45.5%       38.5%       42.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.82

 WP052024 240722 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  18.8  19.9  13.9  19.2  24.2  32.0  31.4  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  79.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -7.0  -1.0  -8.0  -5.0 -15.0 -29.0  U  N  U  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%