Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022024 240703 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     75.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  30.5  33.9  29.8  20.2  17.4  26.4  17.9  U  N  U  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0  85.0  41.0  48.0  88.0  17.0  42.0  28.0  F  N  N  N  F  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  39.3  39.3  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  73.0   6.0  -7.0  18.0  17.0   7.0  13.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   7.0   0.0  -3.0   6.0   0.0   6.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        0.5%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 AL022024 240703 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     75.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  30.5  33.9  29.8  20.2  17.4  26.4  17.9  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   7.0   0.0  -3.0   6.0   0.0   6.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%       26.6%       13.3%