Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022024 240701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     60.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  19.3  24.0  31.1  25.6  34.3  28.1  23.2  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  27.0  42.0  52.0  95.0  51.0  74.0  39.0  U  U  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         37.9  42.3  40.1  44.6  42.3  44.6  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  14.0  20.0  20.0  45.0  56.0  69.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0  10.0  12.0  19.0  28.0  19.0  -3.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%        4.7%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%        5.6%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        3.5%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        3.5%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 AL022024 240701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     60.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  19.3  24.0  31.1  25.6  34.3  28.1  23.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0  10.0  12.0  19.0  28.0  19.0  -3.0  N  N  F  F VF VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.9%        2.5%