Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022024 240630 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60     54.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  13.5  15.1  20.2  17.3  27.5  22.0  26.2  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  50.0  32.0  22.0  29.0  55.0  74.0  53.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         47.9  47.9  50.1  50.1  50.1  52.3  50.1  54.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  45.0  28.0  -3.0  18.0  23.0  53.0  64.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -5.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   8.0  10.0  21.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       57.7%       22.2%       39.9%
 25kt / 24h       34.7%       30.0%       32.4%
 30kt / 24h       34.7%       24.8%       29.8%
 35kt / 24h       34.7%       24.8%       29.8%
 40kt / 24h       34.7%       23.6%       29.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 AL022024 240630 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60     54.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  13.5  15.1  20.2  17.3  27.5  22.0  26.2  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -5.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   8.0  10.0  21.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%