Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012024 240529 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.5  54.7  48.0  51.1  52.2  54.6  73.0  90.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.5  63.0  49.6  39.4  30.5  12.4   0.8 -13.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  88.0  56.0  35.0  12.0  14.0  94.0 109.0  N  F  N  N  U  U  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  49.0  48.0  53.0  57.0  68.0  72.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  20.0  13.0  25.0  27.0  24.0  53.0   9.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.74

 WP012024 240529 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.