Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012024 240527 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    122.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  23.4  27.0  25.4  22.0  30.4  43.0  48.5  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  120.0 116.0  66.0  56.0  71.0   8.0  16.0   1.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  74.3  31.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  50.0  95.0 104.0  87.0  40.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  73.0  56.0  47.0  44.0  N  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  12.0  16.0  20.0  21.0  18.0  23.0  43.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.4%       13.1%       27.7%
 25kt / 24h       36.4%       28.7%       32.5%
 30kt / 24h       36.3%       18.6%       27.5%
 35kt / 24h       36.3%       18.6%       27.5%
 40kt / 24h       36.3%       18.6%       27.5%
 45kt / 36h       55.3%       14.0%       34.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.4%        4.4%        7.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.18

 WP012024 240527 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    122.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  23.4  27.0  25.4  22.0  30.4  43.0  48.5  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  73.0  56.0  47.0  44.0  N  U  U  U  N  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  12.0  16.0  20.0  21.0  18.0  23.0  43.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%