Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232024 240503 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.20     42.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.9  39.8  38.4  39.4  36.0  37.8  37.8  37.8 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  26.0  26.0  25.0  40.0  18.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  53.0  51.0  44.0  38.0 107.0 107.0 107.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  71.0  70.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -13.0 -12.0 -10.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 VF VF  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        1.0%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        3.7%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        1.7%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        1.7%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        1.7%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        0.5%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 SH232024 240503 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.20     42.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.9  39.8  38.4  39.4  36.0  37.8  37.8  37.8 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  71.0  70.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -13.0 -12.0 -10.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 VU VU  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        1.8%        1.3%        1.6%