Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132024 240215 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.20     64.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  18.4  16.2  21.4  30.6  39.8  49.8  66.9  F  F  F  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  44.0  48.0  54.0  67.0  54.0  39.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0 106.0  86.0  49.0 115.0 103.0  96.0  64.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0 -17.0 -13.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%       10.2%        7.3%
 25kt / 24h       32.8%       58.7%       45.8%
 30kt / 24h       14.8%       41.8%       28.3%
 35kt / 24h       10.8%       41.8%       26.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%       40.4%       21.3%
 45kt / 36h       24.2%       61.2%       42.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       39.2%       19.6%
 55kt / 48h       30.9%       33.1%       32.0%
 70kt / 48h       12.0%       25.2%       18.6%
 65kt / 72h       12.7%       16.8%       14.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 SH132024 240215 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.20     64.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  18.4  16.2  21.4  30.6  39.8  49.8  66.9  U  N  U  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0 -17.0 -13.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%