Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052024 240115 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.50     54.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  30.1  40.0  37.3  37.1  39.7  31.9  38.4  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  10.0  19.0  13.0  18.0  15.0  10.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.0  65.1  58.6  54.4  56.5  52.4  48.5  58.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0 123.0 139.0  95.0  52.0  30.0  73.0  73.0  F  F VF  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  65.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -14.0 -13.0 -23.0 -13.0  -7.0  -5.0  -1.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.8%        2.6%        6.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%        4.5%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        1.9%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%        1.9%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%        1.9%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        5.6%        1.1%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 SH052024 240115 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.50     54.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  30.1  40.0  37.3  37.1  39.7  31.9  38.4  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  65.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -14.0 -13.0 -23.0 -13.0  -7.0  -5.0  -1.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%