Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052024 240113 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     54.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  14.3  12.6  16.9  19.6  22.2  27.5  28.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  59.0  40.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  90.0 119.0  83.0  67.0 101.0 112.0 120.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0 -11.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.5%       31.0%       30.8%
 25kt / 24h       70.9%       81.4%       76.1%
 30kt / 24h       52.7%       78.3%       65.5%
 35kt / 24h       46.3%       78.3%       62.3%
 40kt / 24h       31.4%       76.3%       53.9%
 45kt / 36h       52.4%       75.1%       63.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       60.5%       30.3%
 55kt / 48h       49.7%       59.3%       54.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       40.3%       32.5%
 65kt / 72h       43.6%       44.3%       43.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.78

 SH052024 240113 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     54.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  14.3  12.6  16.9  19.6  22.2  27.5  28.3  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0 -11.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%