Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231209 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    155.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.5  50.4  54.6  49.2  39.0  18.1  12.1  12.8 VU VU VU VU  U  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  66.0  61.0  44.0  25.0  29.0  33.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  67.3  67.3  74.3  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  47.0  27.0  21.0 -22.0 -48.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  56.0  52.0  55.0  60.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0 -12.0 -16.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  F  F  F  F VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 SH032024 231209 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40    155.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.5  50.4  54.6  49.2  39.0  18.1  12.1  12.8 VF VF VF VF  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  56.0  52.0  55.0  60.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0 -12.0 -16.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       13.6%       30.0%       21.8%