Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231206 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.60    157.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  23.1  24.3  29.5  42.4  56.0  54.6  52.1  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  62.0  63.0  61.0  54.0  53.0  47.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0 113.0 105.0 103.0  68.0  38.0  30.0  -6.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  62.0  58.0  60.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -13.0  -9.0  -8.0 -17.0  -3.0 -16.0 -16.0  F VF  F  F VF  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       57.1%       30.0%       43.6%
 25kt / 24h       69.0%       66.4%       67.7%
 30kt / 24h       58.3%       62.6%       60.4%
 35kt / 24h       53.0%       62.6%       57.8%
 40kt / 24h       53.0%       61.2%       57.1%
 45kt / 36h       36.5%       23.6%       30.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.0%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        7.7%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        1.8%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 SH032024 231206 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.60    157.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  23.1  24.3  29.5  42.4  56.0  54.6  52.1  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  62.0  58.0  60.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -13.0  -9.0  -8.0 -17.0  -3.0 -16.0 -16.0  U VU  U  U VU  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%