Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052023 231023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     53.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  29.8  34.6  39.5  44.4  55.4  63.6  63.6  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   9.0  10.0  11.0  10.0   6.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  69.3  57.9  51.5  55.7  55.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  52.0  82.0  56.0  39.0 -22.0 -15.0 -15.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  52.0  52.0  57.0  59.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.8%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.7%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        0.2%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 IO052023 231023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     53.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  29.8  34.6  39.5  44.4  55.4  63.6  63.6  N  N  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  52.0  52.0  57.0  59.0  56.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.3%        3.7%