Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]    100.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  19.7  20.6  17.9  22.8  12.1  16.7  11.3  F  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  70.0   6.0  26.0  23.0   7.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  46.5  38.5  34.8  29.4  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  70.0  65.0  65.0  40.0  11.0  36.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   7.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       76.0%       47.8%       61.9%
 25kt / 24h       63.5%       65.3%       64.4%
 30kt / 24h       63.4%       65.3%       64.4%
 35kt / 24h       63.4%       65.3%       64.4%
 40kt / 24h       43.0%       61.7%       52.4%
 45kt / 36h       79.2%       44.6%       61.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP102023 230903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  19.7  20.6  17.9  22.8  12.1  16.7  11.3  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   7.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%