Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    124.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.0  14.9  19.3  20.2  23.3  24.4  21.0  15.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  97.0  94.0  86.0  90.0  71.0  15.0  11.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  14.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -19.0  31.0  83.0  60.0  61.0 -38.0  15.0  U  U  N  N  N  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -9.0   0.0  -1.0 -16.0  -8.0  N  N  N  F  N  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.0%       12.6%       20.8%
 25kt / 24h       17.3%       14.8%       16.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.80

 WP052023 230725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    124.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.0  14.9  19.3  20.2  23.3  24.4  21.0  15.3  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -9.0   0.0  -1.0 -16.0  -8.0  N  N  N  U  N  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%