Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230724 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  16.2  16.4  14.2  17.3  29.4  23.7  21.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  53.0  52.0  70.0  90.0  74.0  63.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  31.0  22.0  12.0  34.0  50.0  39.0  -1.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -8.0  -6.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0 -11.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       67.4%       33.8%       50.6%
 25kt / 24h       51.8%       47.7%       49.7%
 30kt / 24h       51.8%       45.2%       48.5%
 35kt / 24h       51.8%       45.2%       48.5%
 40kt / 24h       25.5%       41.9%       33.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP052023 230724 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  16.2  16.4  14.2  17.3  29.4  23.7  21.4  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -8.0  -6.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0 -11.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%