Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230723 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    128.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  14.0  16.9  11.2  20.7  17.8  17.7  17.4  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  94.0  85.0  76.0  60.0  71.0  80.0  61.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0 107.0 130.0 127.0  29.0  44.0  34.0  65.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       79.3%       71.5%       75.4%
 25kt / 24h       98.5%       95.3%       96.9%
 30kt / 24h       96.7%       95.3%       96.0%
 35kt / 24h       95.9%       95.3%       95.6%
 40kt / 24h       82.7%       94.7%       88.7%
 45kt / 36h       87.0%       90.9%       88.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       86.6%       43.3%
 55kt / 48h       51.6%       79.6%       65.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       66.0%       45.4%
 65kt / 72h       47.8%       64.2%       56.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP052023 230723 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    128.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  14.0  16.9  11.2  20.7  17.8  17.7  17.4  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%