Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230722 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  18.4  13.6  16.8  13.7  12.6  17.1  23.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  76.0  73.0 129.0 129.0 129.0 123.0 103.0  N  N  N VF VF VF  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0  97.0 148.0 149.0 116.0  98.0  70.0  35.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  76.0  78.0  76.0  82.0  80.0  78.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   4.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        5.4%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       41.1%       55.1%       48.1%
 30kt / 24h       18.5%       32.5%       25.5%
 35kt / 24h        7.9%       31.0%       19.5%
 40kt / 24h        7.9%       31.0%       19.5%
 45kt / 36h       46.1%       71.0%       58.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       46.7%       23.4%
 55kt / 48h       79.2%       68.1%       73.6%
 70kt / 48h       79.2%       62.0%       70.6%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       83.0%       72.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 WP052023 230722 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  18.4  13.6  16.8  13.7  12.6  17.1  23.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  76.0  78.0  76.0  82.0  80.0  78.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   4.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%