Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230716 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  20.4  20.3  17.0  15.7  18.1  22.2  28.3  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.1  24.4  23.0  21.7  17.9  21.7  23.0  27.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -31.0 -25.0  -1.0   3.0  19.0   6.0  20.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  57.0  55.0  52.0  45.0  43.0  39.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.5%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.66

 EP032023 230716 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.