Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230615 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70     67.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.4  43.3  37.2  30.3  30.1  27.9  32.4  29.1 VU VU  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  32.0  41.0  43.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  90.7  69.4  66.0  67.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -24.0   0.0 -15.0 -43.0 -12.0  17.0   5.0 VU VU  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  53.0  52.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  42.0  33.0  32.0  28.0  34.0  27.0  37.0  23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.46

 IO022023 230615 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70     67.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.4  43.3  37.2  30.3  30.1  27.9  32.4  29.1 VF VF  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  53.0  52.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  42.0  33.0  32.0  28.0  34.0  27.0  37.0  23.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       99.7%        3.5%       51.6%