Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230614 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 66.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 66.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.2 43.4 50.7 48.0 39.0 35.0 27.5 23.7 VU VU VU VU U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 43.0 40.0 38.0 40.0 36.0 42.0 28.0 28.0 N N U N U N U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 62.9 39.4 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -20.0 -51.0 -63.0 -24.0 -38.0 -19.0 0.0 4.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 51.0 42.0 43.0 48.0 49.0 56.0 54.0 U U VU VU U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 36.0 31.0 55.0 57.0 36.0 36.0 39.0 28.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 0.5% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.46 IO022023 230614 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 66.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.2 43.4 50.7 48.0 39.0 35.0 27.5 23.7 VF VF VF VF F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 51.0 42.0 43.0 48.0 49.0 56.0 54.0 F F VF VF F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 36.0 31.0 55.0 57.0 36.0 36.0 39.0 28.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 99.7% 58.8% 79.2%