Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230611 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40     67.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.2  48.6  48.0  50.0  41.6  43.5  41.5  39.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  73.0  66.0  61.0  51.0  38.0  27.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  43.0  29.0  15.0  27.0  33.0  27.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  44.0  47.0  51.0  52.0  57.0  60.0  59.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  41.0  36.0  35.0  31.0  21.0  22.0  31.0  29.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        0.4%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        0.7%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%        0.2%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.76

 IO022023 230611 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40     67.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.2  48.6  48.0  50.0  41.6  43.5  41.5  39.3 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  44.0  47.0  51.0  52.0  57.0  60.0  59.0 VF VF VF  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  41.0  36.0  35.0  31.0  21.0  22.0  31.0  29.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       99.7%       80.3%       90.0%