Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230611 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    132.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  32.5  37.4  40.6  45.3  59.2  62.7  84.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.5  44.4  30.0  24.4  -4.2 -18.3 -28.4 -33.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  75.0 100.0  95.0  59.0  58.0  50.0  29.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  67.0  64.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.0  34.0  28.0  39.0  47.0  33.0  44.0  68.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        0.7%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.6%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.54

 WP032023 230611 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    132.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.