Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230609 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     67.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  33.4  34.0  34.6  39.0  39.3  41.2  38.9  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  47.0  45.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  19.0  27.0  48.0  54.0 -14.0 -26.0  -9.0  U  U  U  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  48.0  47.0  51.0  52.0  55.0  59.0  64.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   8.0  13.0  15.0  17.0  22.0  27.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.3%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        6.6%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        2.7%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.5%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        2.5%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        1.6%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.06

 IO022023 230609 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     67.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  33.4  34.0  34.6  39.0  39.3  41.2  38.9  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  48.0  47.0  51.0  52.0  55.0  59.0  64.0 VF  F VF  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   8.0  13.0  15.0  17.0  22.0  27.0  N  N  F  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        2.2%        1.1%        1.6%