Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230607 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     65.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  27.9  28.0  27.3  28.5  36.1  43.5  45.4  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  60.0  72.0  39.0  38.0  30.0  34.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  47.0  48.0  46.0  50.0  48.0  49.0  U VU VU  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0   3.0  14.0  23.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.2%        6.7%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.9%       20.9%       20.9%
 30kt / 24h       18.0%       13.3%       15.6%
 35kt / 24h       18.0%       13.3%       15.6%
 40kt / 24h       18.0%       13.2%       15.6%
 45kt / 36h       28.7%        7.7%       18.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%        3.5%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%        0.6%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.10

 IO022023 230607 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     65.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  27.9  28.0  27.3  28.5  36.1  43.5  45.4  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  47.0  48.0  46.0  50.0  48.0  49.0  F VF VF  F VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0   3.0  14.0  23.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%