Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230523 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    145.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  32.7  33.8  30.2  23.5  20.1  18.8  15.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  18.0 109.0 121.0 128.0 109.0  92.0  55.0  F  U  F  F VF  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  14.0  30.0  37.0  47.0  24.0  46.0  65.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  80.0  82.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   1.0  -2.0  -7.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        0.6%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        0.9%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 WP022023 230523 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    145.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  32.7  33.8  30.2  23.5  20.1  18.8  15.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  80.0  82.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   1.0  -2.0  -7.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       13.2%        6.6%