Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192023 230519 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.90     70.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  35.4  37.6  35.3  34.2  31.9  35.7  32.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.0 117.0 114.6 114.6 112.3 112.3 110.1 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0  28.0  13.0  21.0  21.0  35.0  53.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -7.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.7%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 SH192023 230519 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.90     70.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  35.4  37.6  35.3  34.2  31.9  35.7  32.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -7.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%