Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192023 230515 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.50     77.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  18.1  18.6  19.8  22.5  25.5  26.0  24.1  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  16.0  14.0  13.0  14.0  19.0  37.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  79.3  77.0  77.0  77.0  79.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0 120.0 102.0 117.0 129.0 137.0 105.0  75.0  N  F  F  F  F VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  70.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       72.1%       45.4%       58.8%
 25kt / 24h       91.3%       78.6%       84.9%
 30kt / 24h       91.3%       78.6%       84.9%
 35kt / 24h       91.3%       78.6%       84.9%
 40kt / 24h       91.3%       76.3%       83.8%
 45kt / 36h       68.2%       55.9%       62.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       38.6%       19.3%
 55kt / 48h       23.3%       26.5%       24.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        8.1%       10.3%        9.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 SH192023 230515 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -5.50     77.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  18.1  18.6  19.8  22.5  25.5  26.0  24.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  70.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%