Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012023 230511 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     88.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  25.0  34.6  33.8  44.4  38.4  20.9  29.1  N  N  U  U VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  74.0  70.0  66.0  60.0  62.0  54.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   159.0 132.0 141.0  49.0   1.0   5.0  -5.0  -2.0 VF  F VF  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  46.0  43.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   7.0  13.0  34.0  17.0  10.0  -2.0  N  N  N  U VU  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.5%       27.5%       30.5%
 25kt / 24h       67.5%       71.1%       69.3%
 30kt / 24h       41.7%       60.0%       50.9%
 35kt / 24h       39.0%       60.0%       49.5%
 40kt / 24h       15.2%       56.7%       36.0%
 45kt / 36h       27.4%       52.2%       39.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       28.8%       14.4%
 55kt / 48h       14.1%       19.4%       16.7%
 70kt / 48h        7.0%        8.8%        7.9%
 65kt / 72h       22.4%       14.0%       18.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.84

 IO012023 230511 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     88.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  25.0  34.6  33.8  44.4  38.4  20.9  29.1  N  N  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  46.0  43.0  48.0  N  N  F  F  F VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   7.0  13.0  34.0  17.0  10.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%