Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182023 230411 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  22.6  20.9  15.5  16.8  23.7  39.1  48.2  N  N  N  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  48.0  51.0  56.0  65.0  74.0 118.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  73.0  37.0  12.0 -12.0  -2.0  23.0  36.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  45.0  46.0  46.0  43.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -8.0  -5.0 -24.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.3%        8.8%        8.6%
 25kt / 24h       29.8%       48.3%       39.1%
 30kt / 24h       17.5%       34.8%       26.2%
 35kt / 24h       13.1%       34.8%       24.0%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%       34.2%       20.1%
 45kt / 36h       23.9%       43.3%       33.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       23.6%       11.8%
 55kt / 48h       24.7%       31.0%       27.9%
 70kt / 48h       13.3%       15.3%       14.3%
 65kt / 72h       23.6%       13.6%       18.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.62

 SH182023 230411 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  22.6  20.9  15.5  16.8  23.7  39.1  48.2  N  N  N  U  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  45.0  46.0  46.0  43.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -8.0  -5.0 -24.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%