Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182023 230409 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90    127.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  23.1  18.0  12.7  21.6  24.6  21.8  19.5  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  78.0  69.0  53.0  45.0  48.0  53.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  63.0  54.0  87.0  73.0  88.0  53.0  35.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  68.0  63.0  57.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%       17.4%       14.8%
 25kt / 24h       53.3%       73.4%       63.3%
 30kt / 24h       29.8%       63.0%       46.4%
 35kt / 24h       23.9%       63.0%       43.4%
 40kt / 24h        9.1%       60.0%       34.5%
 45kt / 36h       39.1%       78.4%       58.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       64.7%       32.3%
 55kt / 48h       46.5%       55.3%       50.9%
 70kt / 48h       22.2%       47.8%       35.0%
 65kt / 72h       46.5%       60.6%       53.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.24

 SH182023 230409 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.90    127.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  23.1  18.0  12.7  21.6  24.6  21.8  19.5  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  68.0  63.0  57.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%