Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230309 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.30     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  29.1  25.3  25.9  24.5  21.8  24.3  20.7  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  24.0  29.0  30.0  24.0  17.0  14.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.5  88.6  88.6  88.6  88.6  88.6  90.7  92.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  31.0  26.0  24.0  47.0  41.0  60.0  45.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  55.0  57.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -2.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 SH112023 230309 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.30     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  29.1  25.3  25.9  24.5  21.8  24.3  20.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  55.0  57.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -2.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%