Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230217 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80     73.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  24.7  21.7  20.3  16.0  13.3  11.9  19.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  23.0  22.0  22.0  24.0  15.0  22.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.3  42.0  42.0  42.0  39.6  35.1  39.6  37.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0 -15.0  -8.0   0.0   1.0  33.0  24.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  43.0  44.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   8.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        1.9%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        3.3%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.1%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 SH112023 230217 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80     73.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  24.7  21.7  20.3  16.0  13.3  11.9  19.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  43.0  44.0  43.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   8.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       12.8%        6.4%