25/00UTC.
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLEINTS ON BOTH 20W AND 03B.
TY 20W(MINDULLE). WARNING 11 ISSUED AT 25/03UTC
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 20W IS SLOWING AS IT BEGINS A LONG GRACEFUL BEND INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. A BUILDING HIGH HEIGHT CENTER SOUTH OF SHANGHAI IS EXTENDING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA WHILE THE BONIN HIGH REMAINS STEADY AND STATIONARY, LEAVING TYPHOON 20W NOWHERE TO GO BUT THROUGH A WIDE ALLEY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THAT ALLEY WILL ALLOW TYPHOON 20W TO POLITELY SPARE OKINAWA, IWO TO, AND HONSHU, BUT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORM AND TRANSITORY AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER NORTHERN JAPAN WILL DRIVE A WIDE SWATH OF GALES OFF-SHORE OF HONSHU. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 30C THROUGH THE 28TH LATITUDE, BUT SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE UPWELLING THAT WILL IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE STORMS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ALSO BEGIN FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF THE TROPIC OF CANCER AND THERE IS A COLD EDDY ALONG TRACK. OTHER THAN THE OCEANOGRAPHIC FACTORS, HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SMALL EYE REPEATEDLY POPPING OUT AND THEN BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS CONFIRM DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL IMPEDING INTENSIFICATION OF TY 20W. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ASSESSMENTS ARE ABOVE OBJECTIVE MEASURES DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM BUT SATCON AND ADT ARE STEADILY RISING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT LEANS TOWARD THE SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENTS BASED ON THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY REVEALED ON A 242149Z SSMIS SERIES, WHICH ALSO CONFIRMS THE WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TYPHOON 20W REMAINS SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOWING MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN BUT ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME ACROSS TRACK SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, BOTH ENSEMBLE MEANS AND INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS TELL THE SAME STORY REGARDING A SLOW AND GRACEFUL BLEND INTO THE MID LAITUDES, WITH THE STORM ROLLING OVER TO THE EAST OF NORTH AFTER CROSSING THE 25TH LATITUDE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS STRAIGHT ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY AND A GREATER SPREAD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, JUST ABOVE STASTICICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND NEAR THE COAMPS-TC SOLUTION BASED ON THE NEARLY IDEALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.
TC 03B. WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 25/03UTC
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK STEADILY WESTWARD THROUGH A CONSISTENT ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUTNERING INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONSOLIDATION AND IMPROVING ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL CORE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF 10-15KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 29C SEA WATERS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING OUTFLOW AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS CONFIRM DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE BAY OF BENGAL. OTHER THAN A MILD INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR NEAR THE EAST COAST OF INDIA, THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG TRACK IS CONSISTENT THROUGH LANDFALL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATCON AND ADT ASSESSMENTS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED. THE JTWC FORECAST RIDES THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING TO RECONCILE THE GOOD OCEANOGRAPHIC CONDITIONS WITH A VARIABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADIENT. THE FARTHER POLEWARD THE SYSTEM TRACKS, THE LIGHTER THE SHEAR, BUT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ORIGINATING FROM THE SEASONAL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT THE BASE OF THE HIMALAYAS. THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS JUST BELOW THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE, CLOSER TO HWRF.
25/0230UTC.
25/00UTC.
ATLANTIC. HU 18L(SAM). WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 25/03UTC.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 85KNOTS/CAT 2 AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 120KNOTS/CAT 4 BY 27/00UTC.
HU 18L(SAM). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
SUBTROPICAL STORM 19L(TERESA). WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 25/03UTC
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 40KNOTS.
STS 19L(TERESA). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
25/0330UTC.
