Western Pacific: TS 22W(LIONROCK) making landfall over Hainan/ busy too with 3 Invest areas East of the Philippines, 08/03utc

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 22W IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MASSIVE STR COMPLEX CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH 24H AS THE RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF HAINAN ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN CROSS THE ISLAND, EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN NEAR 36H. BY 36H A NEW RIDGE CENTER BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CHINA, DUE NORTH OF TS 22W, WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT AND TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. BY 48H THE RIDGE REORIENTS TO A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST AXIS, PUSHING TS 22W ONTO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SECOND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL VIETNAM AROUND 72H. WHILE THE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SERVE AS A BRAKE ON DEVELOPMENT, THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES HAINAN. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, EVEN WHEN CROSSING HAINAN, GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE OFFSHORE AREAS OF THE ISLAND, PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM, BUT INCREASED EASTERLY SHEAR WEAK CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INTENSIFICATION, WITH A SECOND PEAK OF 40 KNOTS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN VIETNAM. ONCE ASHORE IN VIETNAM THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC, WITH WEAKER CONVECTIVE BANDS STARTING TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE THOUGH A BAND OF HIGHER, NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS, REMAINS IN PLACE IN A WIDE ARC APPROXIMATELY 230KM OUT FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF HONG KONG TO WEST OF THE PHILIPPINES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SPIRAL BAND ANALYSIS OF THE EXPOSED LLCC AND ANIMATED RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES IN LIGHT OF THE ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES AND OVERALL IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SSTS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 22W IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72H, WITH THE GFS AND HWRF BEING THE ONLY CONTRARIAN MEMBERS, SHOWING A SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD AFTER 36H. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE PACKED WITHIN A 210KM ENVELOPE AT 72H, INCREASING AFTER LANDFALL AS THE VORTEX DISSIPATES. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ON LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MEMBERS ALL CONCUR ON THE OVERALL TRENDS, THOUGH THE COAMPS-TC MEMBERS CARRY ON THE INTENSIFICATION TREND WHILE OVER HAINAN, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. THUS THE JTWC FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT TERRAIN INFLUENCES TO LIE AT THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE THROUGH 48H, THEN CLOSELY TRACKS THE HWRF SOLUTION THEREAFTER WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 131.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 131.3E, APPROXIMATELY 1140KM EAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH EXTENSIVE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES. A 080036Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED, ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WESTERLIES AND WEAKER WINDS (05-20 KNOTS) ELSEWHERE. A 080444Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES BUT LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH CONVERGENT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LLC AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 93W WILL MERGE WITH INVEST 94W IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND MERGE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK MOTION AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 137.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 850KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FUELING EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES BUT LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A DISTINCT LLC. A 072318Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS SHARP TURNING WITH A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT NO CLOSED CIRCULATION YET. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 93W WILL MERGE WITH INVEST 94W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND MERGE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK MOTION AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 166.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 500KM SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WITH WANING CONVECTION. A 072253 ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH HIGHER WINDS (20 KNOTS) OFFSET OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY UPPER LOWS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

08/03UTC.