Western Pacific: 20W(MINDULLE):rapid intensification next 48h, 21W(DIANMU):final warning//Atlantic:18L(SAM):rapid intensification next 48h,24/03utc

24/00UTC.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 20W WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) UP TO 96H; AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL GRADUAL THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 130KNOTS/CAT 4 BY 72H AS INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ANTICIPATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, DOWN TO 115KNOTS/CAT 4 BY 120H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AND FEEDER BANDS HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EVOLVING CIRCULATION IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHEAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST WITH THE SPREAD REACHING 1000 KM BY 120H MAINLY CAUSED BY A TIGHT CLUSTER OF TRACKERS INCLUDING UEMN, EGRR, AND AFUM THAT ARE ON THE EXTREME LEFT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO 72H AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD, PROPORTIONALLY ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 72H TO OFFSET THE LEFT OUTLIERS. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 72H AND LOW AFTERWARD.

TS 20W(MINDULLE). HWRF AT 24/00UTC. INTENSITY GUIDANCE: 121KNOTS AT +72H.

24/00UTC.

24/00UTC.

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 60KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 110KNOTS/CAT 3 BY 26/00UTC.

TS 18L(SAM). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

24/0030UTC.